Tesla’s Stock Price Might Struggle Next Year
# Analyzing Tesla’s Stock Price Forecast for the Next Year
## A Closer Look at Tesla’s Potential Stock Price Stability
I know what you are thinking, did I read that right? Tesla Economist, saying that Tesla’s stock price could be flat next year? What is he talking about, there is so much happening, we have these new factories, and 4680 batteries, and so much demand from potential rebates in the US. Tesla is off to Mars next year, it’s going to be a killer year.
## Tesla’s Core as a Manufacturing Company
Well, Tesla is still a manufacturing company, or at least at its core, it has to manufacture to grow. And these are capital heavy items, cars, not just phones. We are still very much limited by the pace at which Tesla can produce.
## Reflection on Tesla’s Stock Price in the Past Year
I don’t know how many of you recall that I said the same thing at the start of this year. Nothing much is going to happen to the stock price, for the first half of the year, the air will be taken out, as all we really had was the Model Y growth in Shanghai.
## Anticipated Events for the Upcoming Year
I am expecting a similar year this year, of course all macro events aside. It will start off with a bang, production for the quarter could likely hit above 300,000. And I think profits should be good too, although there are rumors margins might not be quite as high, possibly due to supply chain issues, and maybe Model X ramping.
## Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for Tesla
Basically, the whole of next year will be dependent on the success and level of how 4680s, Berlin and Texas ramp up. That’s what we keep our eye on, there will be struggles, we could have macro factors like supply chain issues too. Sure, you can say there are other events too, but they are mainly distractions. We need to see proof that Tesla can take this business to the next level.
## Future Projections for Tesla’s Production and Profitability
If we hit the run rate of 100 GWh by the end of next year, for 4680 alone, and expect a similar amount from Tesla’s partners, then that’s 200 GWh for the start of 2023, which is about 3 million vehicles. But 4680 lines should be ramping exponentially, once we have the machine that builds the machine.
As the year progresses, the focus will be on ramping up production, addressing supply chain challenges, and achieving profitability targets. Tesla’s journey towards increased production capacity and market dominance is set to continue, with potential for significant growth and success in the years ahead.
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